The decision of Thailand and Malaysia, two close neighbors of Indonesia, to join the BRICS group (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) has drawn attention from many countries, including Indonesia. As two neighboring countries in Southeast Asia, their strategic economic and political moves have raised questions about when Indonesia will follow suit.

Key Points

• President Joko Widodo also stated that his government is reviewing this possibility, but will not rush the process
• Some analysts argue that this decision reflects concerns about involvement in geopolitical alliances and uncertainties regarding the economic benefits to be gained.

Background on Thailand and Malaysia Joining BRICS

In recent days, Thailand and Malaysia have officially announced their intention to join BRICS. Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim stated that Malaysia is in the process of completing all formal procedures to become a full member of this group. He emphasized that joining BRICS is a significant strategic step, given the Strait of Malacca's position as a crucial shipping lane connecting the Pacific and Indian Oceans.

Meanwhile, Thailand has also expressed similar intentions through their Foreign Minister, who delivered an official letter to the Russian Foreign Minister. The Thai government views BRICS membership as a means to enhance the country's role on the international stage and bolster its sluggish economy. This decision aligns with Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin's vision to strengthen Thailand's economy and elevate its international profile.

Indonesia's Stance on BRICS

Indonesia, as the largest economy in Southeast Asia, has always been cautious in making decisions regarding foreign policy. Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi stated earlier in 2024 that Indonesia is carefully considering the benefits of joining BRICS. President Joko Widodo also mentioned that his government is reviewing this possibility but will not rush the process.

According to Retno, Indonesia's foreign policy is always carefully considered because it involves national interests. Indonesia already has close trade relations with several BRICS members, such as China, which is Indonesia's largest trading partner.

Some analysts argue that this decision reflects concerns about involvement in geopolitical alliances and uncertainties regarding the economic benefits to be gained. Concerns about Indonesia's image being perceived as part of the China-Russia bloc are also a consideration.

Benefits and Challenges if Indonesia Joins BRICS

Benefits:

• Access to Larger Markets: By joining BRICS, Indonesia would gain access to broader markets through trade agreements like the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA). This could boost exports and strengthen the national economy.
• Geopolitical Influence: Membership in BRICS could enhance Indonesia's influence on the global stage, providing a stronger voice in global dialogues and positioning Indonesia as a balancer amidst global conflicts between Western and Eastern blocs.
• Economic Cooperation: Joining BRICS would enable Indonesia to strengthen cooperation in economics, investment, and technology with its member countries.

Challenges:

• Complex Geopolitics: BRICS members, particularly Russia, are involved in complex geopolitical dynamics. Indonesia must navigate this carefully to avoid conflicts with longstanding partners like the United States and Europe.
• Active Free Foreign Policy: Maintaining the principle of active and independent foreign policy becomes more challenging with BRICS membership. Indonesia must ensure that joining BRICS aligns with national interests that prioritize balance.
• Policy Implementation: Joining BRICS requires not only formalities but also significant adjustments in economic and foreign policies. This could be a complex process that takes time.

The Rise of BRICS and its Implications

Over the past two decades, the world has witnessed a significant shift in the global economic and geopolitical landscape, marked by the rise of BRICS nations as a counterbalance to G7 dominance. At the 15th BRICS Summit in Johannesburg, South Africa, expanding membership was one of the key agendas.

The rise of BRICS, especially the rapid economic growth of China and the potential of India as the next economic powerhouse, has reshaped global trade, investment, and supply chain dynamics. While Russia, Brazil, and South Africa have not fully met expectations, collectively BRICS surpassed G7 in terms of combined GDP (PPP) in 2020 and is projected to reach 37.6% of global GDP by 2027.

The expansion of BRICS into BRICS+ with new member additions further strengthens its position in the global agenda, providing significant economic and demographic weight. BRICS+ now represents nearly half of the world's population and more than a third of global GDP (PPP). However, the heterogeneity among members and low internal trade integration pose challenges for the group to significantly influence global trade and the international monetary system.

Thailand's and Malaysia's decisions to join BRICS have reopened discussions in Indonesia about the potential benefits of membership. While the Indonesian government continues to weigh the potential benefits and challenges, it is crucial for Indonesia's foreign policy to remain adaptive and oriented towards national interests. Joining BRICS could be a significant strategic move for Indonesia, but it must be done with careful consideration and an understanding of global geopolitical dynamics.

Source: https://www.goodnewsfromindonesia.id/